UK Mortgage Rates Update

What's moving

• The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% at its 18 June 2026 meeting, on a 7–2 vote — two members (Megan Greene and Huw Pill) preferred a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.00%. The rate has been unchanged since the move that took effect in Dec 2025.
• Average 2- and 5-year fixed rates both fell to 5.52% in mid-July 2026 — the sharpest pace of decline since October 2024 (Moneyfacts data via Mortgage Solutions). This is the market-wide average across all LTV tiers; headline "from" rates at lower LTVs sit below it.
• Mainstream best-buy 2 and 5-year fixed rates are broadly in the 3.5–4.5% range depending on LTV; trackers commonly price at base + 0.5–1.5%.
• Lender stress rates remain around 6–8.5% for residential affordability, keeping a buffer above product rates.

Lock now or wait for the next MPC decision?

The MPC last held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026, on a 7–2 vote — two members preferred a rise to 4.00%. The next scheduled decision is 2026-07-30. Nobody can say in advance what the MPC will decide, but here is what each outcome would generally mean, and how the timing mechanics work regardless of the decision:

• If Bank Rate is held: no direct change to swap rates, though lenders may continue repricing fixed deals independently of the base rate — as they did in mid-July, when average fixed rates fell to 5.52%.
• If Bank Rate is cut: swap rates and fixed-rate pricing would typically be expected to fall further, all else equal, though lenders often price in an anticipated cut before it happens.
• If Bank Rate is raised (as two MPC members preferred in June): fixed-rate pricing would typically be expected to firm up or rise, all else equal.

On timing mechanics: most lenders let you reserve a product-transfer or new-purchase rate 3–6 months before completion or before your current deal ends. If you lock a rate and the lender's pricing then falls before you complete, most lenders will let you switch to the lower rate on request — this varies by lender, so check your offer terms or ask your broker. Locking early protects you if rates rise in the meantime; it doesn't guarantee you the lowest possible rate if they keep falling. See our should I fix for 2 or 5 years comparison for the total-cost trade-off.